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Joel just sent me this picture of the Colts and Saints' buses arriving at Sun Life Stadium. This one here is the Colts' bus and the Saints' bus is after the jump.

Kickoff is just under 2.5 hours and counting....

Joel is inching closer to the press box....

Saints - Colts: Super Bowl XLIV Open Thread - SB Nation

Hey everyone,

This is the open thread on SBNation.com, where fans from all of our communities will gather today. Please stop by and make a few comments, always remembering you represent AP!

We'll have our open thread posted around 4 PM central time.

Joel is en route to the Super Bowl! He just sent me this picture from his phone.

More photos » Gerald Herbert - AP

about 16 hours ago: Parishioners wearing New Orleans Saints gear attend Mass on Super Bowl Sunday at St. Rita's Catholic Church in Harahan, La., a New Orleans suburb, Sunday, Feb. 7, 2010. The NFL football team Saints will play the Indianapolis Colts in the Super Bowl later today. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

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Mrs. Arrowhead Pride was born in Louisiana and I can tell you they are this serious about their football down there. Just thought this was a really cool picture showing how hardcore these Saints fans really are.

Great day to play. Sb44 (via nflprguy)

More photos » Mark Humphrey - AP

2 days ago: The Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year finalists, Washington Redskins' London Fletcher, left, Kansas City Chiefs' Brian Waters, center, and Cleveland Browns' Mike Furrey, right, pose during a news conference Friday, Feb. 5, 2010 in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. The winner will be announced during Super Bowl XLIV Sunday, Feb. 7. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

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A few member of the Kansas City Chiefs brass commented on the report that Brian Waters is the NFL's Walter Payton Man of the Year winner. Owner Clark Hunt, President Denny Thum and former Chiefs great Willie Lanier all expressed pride in the decision to name Waters with the most prestigious award.

When Arrowhead Pride interviewed Hunt at the beginning of the season, he told us being active in the community is a point he makes to the players prior to every season.

Hunt:

"It’s very easy as a professional athlete to get focused on yourself and maybe your team’s success, but Brian has chosen to go a different path, which is to think about those who are less fortunate, specifically children, and to find myriad ways to reach out to them and make a difference in their lives."

Thum:

"When you play here, you don’t only play on the field, but you play for this city and for this community, and Brian has been a great help for our young players in getting involved in the community."

Lanier:

"It’s one thing to have it written in a contract, but it becomes one of people extending themselves to provide a high level of concern. And that high level of concern is not because someone gave you a schedule to visit places or schools. It had to have a deeper resonance in you, and the fact Brian was (a finalist) for the second time in three years … it’s a true testament to the organization and family that owns it and runs it."

Thanks to Randy Covitz of the Kansas City Star for the quotes.

via Marc_Bertrand

Joel's time in Miami is simultaneously winding down and revving up. Here's the best of Arrowhead Pride's coverage of Super Bowl XLIV so far:

Recapping the Yacht Party with Ochocinco, Manning and Liddell

I spent yesterday afternoon on a Reebok yacht introducing the new ZigTech shoe. A few of the folks in attendance included Shane "Sugar" Mosley Santonio Holmes, Eli Manning, Chuck Liddell, Molly Sims (I like!) and Chad Ochocinco, among others.

PHOTOS: Celebrities at Super Bowl XLIV

Drew Brees Training Like the World's Strongest Man Competition

I had a chance to catch up with Drew Brees’ trainer, Todd Durkin, who is tremendously more fit than I am. He was there promoting his partnership with Under Armour, and even showed me these core shorts which A) looked almost like underwear and B) are supposed to be a big help when you work out.

(Note: Not that I would know since I don’t, you know, work out)

Catching Up with Dez Bryant at the Super Bowl

I had a chance to spend a few minutes with former Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant this afternoon. Bryant, as many of you know, is a potential top 10 pick and arguably the No. 1 receiver on the board.

Dang, Super Bowl Players Get Paid How Much?

Super Bowl I featuring the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs saw the players on the winning team take home $15,000. The losers received a check for $7,500.

My how times changed.

The winner of Super Bowl XLIV will take home $83,000. But don’t feel sorry for the loser – they’ll snag $42,000.

OCNN to Goodell: "Maybe a Spanking" Instead of a Fine for Uniform Violation?

OCNN strikes again. This time it was Chris Cooley asking Roger Goodell a question that I’m sure Chad Ochocinco (who couldn’t be there) would be interested in.

Cooley asked Goodell to comment on the uniform fines and players’ behavior on and off the field.

Specifically, Cooley asked if there was an alternatives to fine "other than cash."

Saints are Getting Presidential-esque Security Treatment

I learned very quickly down here in South Florida that the two teams in the Super Bowl are treated like, well, Super Bowl teams. The security is heavy and detailed.

I already touched on NFL security, which drew the attention of the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, but here are a few photos from a standard day for the Saints at their team hotel.

NFLPA Leader on Lockout: "On a scale of 1 to 10, it's a 14"

As I was walking out of the media center this afternoon, I noticed quite a bit of security nearly pushing me out of the way and escorting a short man into the building and up the stairs.

That man may be short but he’s a major power player in the future of the NFL.

DeMaurice Smith, head of the NFL Player’s Association, conducted a press conference this afternoon and painted a bleak picture regarding the possibility of a lockout effectively stopping the games starting in 2011.

Rich Gannon Feels Bad For Some Of His Old Teammates Still On The Raiders

Former Oakland Raiders QB Rich Gannon spoke with our BigBlueShoe from Stampede Blue yesterday afternoon and was pretty honest with his feelings towards the current Raiders.

He admitted to BBS that they were in "disarray" and that he feels bad for some of his teammates that are still on the team.

Hall Of Fame RB Tony Dorsett Compares The Super Bowl Then And Now

I had a chance to catch up with Hall of Fame running back Tony Dorsett this afternoon. He was there with the folks from YesterYear Fantasy Sports, which is actually a pretty cool historical fantasy league where you play fantasy football with guys from the 70s, 80s and so on.

One of the things I was eager to hear from Dorsett was difference in media coverage between the Super Bowl he played in during the 70s and 80s and the zoo that it’s become today.

EA's Madden Video Game Simulates A Saints Victory Over The Colts

Over the last six years, EA’s Madden video game series has correctly predicted the winner of the Super Bowl on five occasions. The lone miss was the upset heard ‘round the world when the Giants beat the Patriots in 2007, so that’s understandable.

Madden once again simulated a game and predicted the winner to be….

All-Star Cast Of Former NFL Players Play Flag Football On South Beach

Let me set the scene for you…

On the left in the picture above is Martin Gramatica, former Bucs kicker, lining up as a receiver. This is moments before a man from the crowd yelled, "Gramatica, can you throw? Who are you going to kick to?"

Next to him is former Raiders receiver Tim Brown. And snapping the ball is another former Raider, Marcus Allen.

----

There's a lot more where that came from. Click here to check out all of Joel's just tremendous coverage of Super Bowl XLIV.

The Super Bowl permeates every corner of American culture. Love it! (via susiwunsch)

More photos » Morry Gash - AP

6 days ago: Rain falls outside Sun Life Stadium, the site of NFL football Super Bowl XLIV, on Monday, Feb. 1, 2010, in Miami. Steady rain forced the NFL to take the unusual step of moving its annual Super

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Good morning Chiefs fans!

I just spoke with Joel and he's in the car with Saintsational from Canal Street Chronicles and they're about to pick up Big Blue Shoe from Stampede Blue. Of course, after that, they'll be on their way to Dolphins Stadium for Super Bowl XLIV.

Joel has been killing it with his Super Bowl coverage all week over at SBNation.com so make sure you head over there and catch up on his posts. His work will be easy to find - his name is splashed across the headlines at SBNation.com.

Even though this is a Kansas City Chiefs site, today is really only about the Colts and Saints. I hope everyone has their bets in, their meat marinating and their grills ready to be fired up. This is potentially the best sports day of the year. So make sure you enjoy it!

This is the early open thread for the day so chat away in here today until an hour before kick off at 4:25 PM central time, when we'll post the open thread. One twist to today's community talk is that we'll have one Super Bowl thread hosted at SBNation.com where all of the football communities will gather as well as the usual open thread thing here at AP.

I think it would be really cool if some of you guys head over to the SBN open thread about 5 PM or so and participate there as well. It will reflect very well on AP and our community.

To get some conversation started today, what are you cooking up for the big game today?

I hope you have a smile on your face today. It's Super Bowl Sunday!

via Kansascity.com

Here's your Super Bowl edition on Arowheadlines. Your Kansas City Chiefs news is gathered from across the internet four your enjoyment. First and foremost. a big shout out to Brian Waters, the 5th Kansas City Chief to be named NFL Man of the Year.

Last Sunday, the lone Kansas City representative on the field at Sun Financial Stadium for the Pro Bowl was K.C. Wolf.

Things will be different this Sunday for Super Bowl XLIV.

First of all, Kansas City’s Sultan of Sod George Toma has worked the playing surface and it’s ready to go for the championship game between the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints. In the post-game ceremonies, Chiefs Hall of Fame QB Len Dawson will deliver the Vince Lombardi Trophy to NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell to hand over to the winning team.

And in pre-game ceremonies, current Chiefs G Brian Waters will be presented with the Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year Award for the 2009 season.

Man Of The Year #5 … Game-Day Cup O’ Super Bowl from  Bob Gretz

KC Star Photo Gallery: Chiefs' Brian Waters | NFL Man of the Year

Waters is the fifth Chiefs player to win the honor, and that’s more than any team in the league. He follows linebacker Willie Lanier (1972), quarterback Len Dawson (1973), linebacker Derrick Thomas (1993) and guard Will Shields (2003).

"If you came to play there," Lanier says of Kansas City, "that was only part of your mission. If you didn’t recognize there was a larger mission outside the lines than just playing the game on Sunday, you didn’t fulfill what your expectations were."

Following in impressive footsteps, Waters has shared his time and riches with thousands of children. He’s done it in the Kansas City area and in his native Waxahachie, Texas, the small town south of Dallas where Waters learned years ago that gifts are given but also can be taken away. He learned then that success is a delicate thing, and Waters came close once to allowing his short temper to derail a promising future.

Chiefs’ Waters wins Walter Payton Man of the Year award from KC Star

The Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2010 includes the leading receiver and rusher in NFL history. The group includes a Hog and a guy who painted his face before most games.

WR Jerry Rice and RB Emmitt Smith led the full class of seven new members that was decided during a seven-hour meeting of the Hall’s Board of Selectors on Saturday at the Ft. Lauderdale Convention Center.

Joining Rice and Smith were Washington Redskins guard Russ Grimm, New Orleans linebacker Ricky Jackson and Minnesota defensive lineman John Randle. Also joining the group were both seniors nominees, Detroit DB Dick LeBeau and Denver RB Floyd Little.

The discussion involving Rice and Smith lasted a combined 10 seconds, as they were mortal locks.

The rest of the meeting was filled with lively debate on the other 15 names in front of the group, as the 44 voting members struggled with cutting the field to the maximum seven inductees.

The Hall Of Fame Class of 2010 from Bob Gretz

Whitlock Alert:

The hall of fame senior committee selected Floyd Little, his 6,300 yards and 3.9-yard average over nine years. Little never played a postseason game. Larry Johnson (6,200, 4.4) is likely to finish with better numbers.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame is becoming a bad joke. Shannon Sharpe won two Super Bowls in Denver and was the key addition that allowed Ray Lewis and the Baltimore Ravens defense to win a Super Bowl. Sharpe retired as the most prolific pass-catching tight end of all time.

Next year, Deion Sanders, Willie Roaf and Marshall Faulk will be on the ballot. They are no-brainers. Jerome Bettis and Curtis Martin have first-ballot resumes. The maximum allowed in is five modern players and two senior inductees. In other words, at least three modern players — Bettis, Martin, Sharpe, Carter or Brown — are going to be disappointed again.

Process for voting on football hall is broken from KC Star

Tonight, Len Dawson will be in the Super Bowl spotlight again.

Dawson, the Chiefs Hall of Fame quarterback, will hand the Vince Lombardi Trophy to the winners of Super Bowl XLIV — 40 years after he and his Kansas City teammates helped spark the transformation of this game from curiosity to national holiday.

"To think we were part of that and what jump-started what this is all about today…" reflected Dawson, the game’s MVP when the Chiefs shocked heavily favored Minnesota 23-7 on Jan. 11, 1970, in New Orleans.

"No one would have dreamed in those days it would be this kind of spectacle."

Chiefs helped make Super Bowl the spectacle it is today from KC Star

It began innocently enough, in mid-January of 1967, under a soothing Southern California sun, and in front of acres of empty seats. The old established franchise, the Green Bay Packers, and the chesty young upstart Kansas City Chiefs engaged in a professional football game that was pretty much ignored by most of America.

Few had even an inkling of the monster it would evolve into: The Super Bowl is our Circus Maximus, complete with Roman numerals in a transparent effort to anoint it with self-importance. (Hence, this is Game No. XLIV, rather than plain 'ol unpretentious 44.)

Our monument to wretched excess.

The busiest, and richest, day of the year for the bookies.

More food is eaten than on any other day of the year, save Thanksgiving.

It began as just another game, then swelled into a day, then bloated into a week.

It began as a game with virtually no audience and now draws just more than 100 million viewers worldwide.

It began as a game that had to beg for TV time and now asks, and gets, $3 million for a 30-second commercial. This is debut day for advertising agencies, who load up with their best creative stuff, knowing the really clever ones will be talked about almost as much as the game itself.

This game's no passing fancy from The Philadelphia Inquirer

Player Tweets

JarradPage44 Hey y'all J Page ain't about to be ANYWHERE in Miami regardless of what u heard on the radio!! almighty31 ive counted 6033 cruches 2day. gotta b a even number. quest 4 7000. almighty31 #nowplaying BASS!!!!!!!!!!! how low can u go? death row, lmao JarradPage44 Jus ran 10 100s 5 200s and 1 300yrd shuttle. First time I've ran like that since I tore my calf in October...*catching breath*feel great lol

Media and Fans

kb_kcstar Just filed a Brian Waters story for Sunday's Sports Daily. He's always been passionate, for better or worse. Tough lessons taught him well. bestyle @ArrowheadPride I hope Al Davis lives to be 100 years old and runs the Raiders the whole time.  ltwoods: Go Chiefs! Congratulations Brian. RT @KCChiefsBlog: Chiefs react to guard Brian Waters winning Man Of The Year. http://bit.ly/abDtv3 FarragoJerid: Looking forward to watching #SB44 tomorrow. Don't really care who wins...I like both teams ok...just wish it were my Chiefs. mospeedatty: Congratulations to Brian Waters on the Walter Peyton Man of the Year award. #chiefs WhitWhit_DubC: Fk u tony g for saying the fans in the south are crazy... Chiefs fans are nuts u unappreciative bastard. I no longer wanna do u prick.. austbiker: Is gonna phsyc myself up for the superbowl later. I wonder if the chiefs will ever go there in my lifetime?

From the FanPosts   -Joel

So here we are, on the eve of the Superbowl. Only 1 more day until the 2010 NFL offseason officially begins. Ok, I know that March 5th starts the new league year, but I’m speaking from a fan perspective. After the final game has ended, the last buffalo wing has been dipped, the pizza boxes go empty, and the beer cooler is drained (or in my case: 150 homemade hand rolled eggrolls, a 15lb whole smoked pork shoulder, 4 bottles of small batch bourbon, and a few ‘illegal’ cigars are smoked) the 2009 season will be all wrapped up.

It’s time again to start looking ahead to what our beloved Chiefs should be focusing on doing in the offseason to turn our team around. In my opinion, the best way to do that is to look back to the past. A lot of different people have a lot of different ideas about what the Chiefs NEED headed into 2010. I’ve decided to let the past answer that question for me, and take its advice in defining the path for the offseason.

As is my usual fashion I’m about to bury you in words and paragraphs of opinion and data, and then I’ll draw my conclusions from what I present. However, this post will be historical in that it will be the first time (and maybe the last because I've now tried to put a table on AP) that I’ll ever try to toss in tables, charts and a few pictures to lighten the load on those of you that actually bother to read what I write before commenting.

Without further ado (I know. Too late, right?) We begin with a table of information:

 

note: green lines denote playoff years

This table represents the modern era of the Chiefs with some basic numbers that we may be able to use to define the path of the offseason. I choose to limit the data to wins, points, runs, passes, sacks and giveaways because I’m fairly lazy realized how much work was ahead of me and so after I made the initial spread sheet I crossed off the other 5 categories that I had penciled in to analyze (Hey, I may be lazy, but at least I’m honest). It’s really not all that useful because it’s not arranged in a way that is easy to read without hunting through the data. However, it’s where I started, so I thought I should allow you a look at the unedited data. If you are a stat hound I’d suggest going to http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/kan.htm like I did. There is enough on that site to keep you sniffing hydrants and licking yourself to last the entire offseason.

via Photobucket.com

First off, let’s rearrange that data based on winning % (and another factor I like to call ‘Vermeil is overrated’). I want to look at the data from a winning perspective because I’m tired of having to eat one of these every damn football season while watching my Chiefs:

via Photobucket.com

Things to note from an initial glance:

• Marty Schottenheimer is a god among coaches
• For all the hype, Vermeil has as many losing seasons as winning ones (2) and only an 8.8 win average per season to Marty's 10.1
• Edwards rode Vermeil's team right into the ground
• Ganz, no matter how much you hate him, put a better team on the field than Edwards. (Choke on that Herm lovers!)

By looking at the table alone it should jump out at you that give away/take away is huge. There is the occational statistical anomaly (as is expected in any sample of data) but the numbers don't lie. Successful Chiefs teams take away the football, and don't give it back. Haley was positive in '09 (+1), but just barely. The team must do a better job than they did last year.

Points Scored: All over the board. Winning seasons show between 318-484 points, but there are 5 of the 10 losing/.500 seasons that also match that mark. Scoring a lot of points alnoe has no direct correlation to winning seasons. That doesn't mean the Chiefs don't need to be able to score. It just means that 21 points a game is enough to win. We don't need 45, and we don't win more games per season when we score 45.

Points Allowed: Shows that the Chiefs have never allowed more than 332 points in any winning season. They also held opponenet to less than 332 points only once in any losing season (Vermeil 2001). There appears to be a direct correlation here.

• The Chiefs NEED to hold opponents to under 332 total points for the season (20.75 p/gm)

 Passing Yards: From 2792-3981 in winning years, and from 2617-4429 in losing years. There is simply too much crossover to apply any direct correlation from passing yards to wins. (Interesting note: The Chiefs have never had a winning season with +4000 passing yards. Only 1 of the 3 +4000 passing yard seasons belongs to Vermeil. The other 2 were Edwards and Cunningham's teams)

Passing Yards Allowed: Again, no direct correlations to winning. the data is simply too muddied.

Pass Attempts AND Run Attempts: We'll handle these together. There is no magic number of times the Chiefs have run or passed the ball to end up a winner.

Run Yards: 1532-2382 in winning years, and 1248-2378 in losing years. Again, no magic number of yards.

Run Yards Allowed: Only 2 of 13 winning seasons have ever had opponents run for more than 1800 yards against the Chiefs. One of those 2 years resulted in the Chiefs squeaking into a winning season at 9-7, and the other the Chiefs had a +19 turnover differential. The Chiefs have never held opponents to under 1800 yards in any losing season. I call that a direct correlation.

• The Chiefs NEED to stop the run and hold opponents to under 1800 yards (112.5 p/gm)

 

Total Yards: Again we see no direct correlation to a winning season.

Total Yards Allowed: There seems to be a threshold somewhere near 5200 yards allowed, but again the data is too muddy to draw any direct correlation to winning.

Sacks: There are some things to look at later, but nothing direct.

Sacks Allowed: The lower the better, but nothing concrete.

 

On second thought, that looks pretty direct and concrete

Give Away/Take Away: Only once in any winning season was this ever a negative (8-7 season), and only twice more was it ever below +5 (both in 9-7 seasons). It's never been above +5 in any losing season. That's not perfect correlation, but with 9-7 and 8-7 seasons all being only 1 loss away from not qualifying as a winning season I'm still inclined to call this a direct correlation. Moreover, the further you look up the table the more apparent it becomes. 9 of the remaing 10 winning seasons had double digit positive turnover differentials. And 8 of the 9 losing seasons came in at less than a +4.

• The Chiefs NEED a +5 or better turnover differential

Some people just don't like tables or spreadsheets. They don't bother to read them or study the numbers. They would prefer that the conclusion just be presented to them in words. Better yet, they would like it presented as an easy to read, easy to understand pie chart. I'm not one of those people, but I have them in mind as readers while I post. Here is the simplest pie chart I could find:

 

 Ok, now that the pie chart is out of the way, settle in while we look at yet another table that digs a bit deeper into the stats. It may be possible to reveal more NEEDS by setting up some ratios between positive and negative aspects of the same statistics that we used in the earlier tables.

 

Glancing over a couple of things we see what we expect to see. Win/Loss is obvious, and when you outscore your opponents you win more games. It also appears that we haven't had too many seasons where big blowouts have affected the numbers very much. The years with the highest Points Scored/Points Allowed ratios account for the most wins. As the number goes down, so do the wins. The things of note in the data are the 2 Vermeil years hovering around a 1 Win/Loss ratio.

The Chiefs had a couple of Vermeil years where they outscored their opponents and yet still managed to end up at .500 or worse. This should tell you that although they won games by larger margins, they still lost more or an equal number of games than they won. This would support the earlier NEED theory that scoring a lot of points (467 and 483 in those 2 seasons - Wow, that is a lot) does not lead to winning more games by itself. Instead, playing better defense and keeping your opponent from scoring (399 and 435 in those same years) puts you in position to win. In fact, looking back at the 2003 Vermeil led Chiefs (13-3 year) we can see that the defense held opponents to just 332 points on the season. It's not that the Chiefs scored 484 that made them winners (They scored 467 and 483 in '02 and '04 but finished .500 or less). Rather, it was not giving up 333+ points on the year.

The best teams on the table got there not by inflating the normal totals for points scored, but instead by stopping their opponents from matching scoring. Herm Edwards actually had it right when he said something like (paraphrasing here because I can't find the exact quote)

 "We only need to score 1 more point than the other guy to win."

 He was not trying to educate us on the definition of the word 'win'. He was attempting to highlight the notion that if you stop the opponent from scoring you only need 1 point to win the game. The other guys cannot possibly beat you if they do not score.

     Looking to the Runs Attempts/Pass Attempts column, a quick glance is all you need to understand that you have to play a balanced game in order to end up a winner. When you start throwing significantly more than you run it, your success level goes down. Yes, I'm aware that when our Chiefs are always playing from behind they are forced to pass the ball, and that those passes affect the numbers. But that still does not change the direct correlation

• The Chiefs NEED to have a balanced offense

Run Yards/Run Yards Allowed: Other than the '03 and '92 seasons, this whole category seems to scream at me. It screams so loud that I'm calling it a direct correlation without even bothering to explain myself. Just look for yourself.

• The Chiefs NEED to run for more yards than they allow their opponents

 

Sacks/Sacks Allowed: Looking at the top and the bottom of this category tells all. When the Chiefs allow more sacks than they force, they lose games.

     Looking deeper into the data reveals that although turnovers can come from picks, fumbles, and strips in the open field, there is also a strong link between Sack/Sack Allowed ratio and the turnover differential. Meaning, when the Chiefs sack the opponent more than they get sacked they also end up with more turnovers comming their way. Without further data (I wonder where it could have gone) I cannot tell you if those turnovers came from QB fumbles directly related to strip/sacks, or if they were INT's related to QB pressure, or if they happened further down the field away from the QB. Just off the cuff I would venture to guess that the increased pressure from sacks has caused INT's or mistakes by a frustrated QB. No matter which way it really happens, we are still left with the following:

• The Chiefs NEED to end the season with more sacks than they allow

Some day in the future when someone blogs or tells you what the Chiefs NEED in order to defend their mock draft or FA wish list, just remember to ask them to prove it before you swallow whatever they say next. Here comes the offseason. Now I know what the NEEDS are as well as the draft order and the available FA's that may be on the market. So all we have to do is apply our NEEDS to the available talent.

NEEDS review:

• The Chiefs NEED to hold opponents to under 332 total points for the season (20.75 per game)
• The Chiefs NEED to stop the run and hold opponents to under 1800 yards (112.5 per game)
• The Chiefs NEED a +5 or better turnover differential
• The Chiefs NEED to have a balanced offense
• The Chiefs NEED to run the ball for more yards than they allow the opponent to run on them
• The Chiefs NEED to end with more sacks than they allow

I was planning a whole 'nother section here, but I decided it would be too long, even for me. I'll judge response to this before finishing up another post titled 'The Path Defines the Offseason' as a follow up piece. If this generates enough response/discussion that I believe anyone is actually interested in my opinion I might post it.

Thanks for reading, and as always: Tear this post up in the comments below.

In 2004 Baseball America rated Billy Butler as the top prospect in the Royal system. Nice call. Butler has developed into a nice young hitter for the Royals, and still appears to have room to grow. (It's weird that no one ever talks about how Dayton Moore and his men told the Royals to take Butler, even though they weren't yet in place in KC.)

Baseball America (nor likely anyone else) thought the Royals had a strong system heading into 2005. BA had the Royals as the 28th best system in the game. And this low standing is reflected in the list below. Back in the winter of 2004, the Royal system had been recently restocked by Allaird Baird, and new faces dominated the top of the system. In a way, this shows how Baird had done some recent good work, but it also speaks to the failure (and a few graduations, like Greinke and DeJesus) of earlier years.

Here's how the rest of the BA Top 10 list rounded out:

• #2 - Denny Bautista (P): Bautista came to the Royal system in a June 2004, trade from Baltimore for Jason Grimsley. This was considered a nice trade for the Royals at the time, and in fact I can still remember the day this trade went down. This was, I believe, the period when Baird was starting to appear somewhat decent as a GM to guys like Neyer. Heck, Baseball Blanking America had him as the second best prospect in the system. According to BA Bautista had the best fastball, the best curve, and the best slider in the system. The Orioles were 28-37 when the trade went down, so I'm not sure why they wanted Jason Grimsley. Bauista had already bounced around a few systems, and wouldn't last long as a Royal. Over three seasons (2004-6) Bautista made 19 starts as a Royal and posted a 5.95 ERA. New GM Dayton Moore sent him to Colorado in the Affeldt/Shealy trade, which means Bautista was twice part of a deal that Royals fans were pretty happy about. And wrong both times. Dude is still around, or will be, I believe. He spent last season pitching for the Pirates' AAA team, but is has been a reliever for years now.

#3 - Mark Teahen (3B): Teahen was another part of Baird's 2004 rebuild of the system. We're all pretty familiar with Teahen around these parts, and while a lot of people seemed never to be happy with him, he gave the Royals 676 games of versatility and decent production for a cheap price. He was never a star, but it's just as important your minor league system produce enough guys like Teahen. And part of the problem is that it hasn't been able to.

#4 - Chris Lubanski (OF): The man that Art Stewart told Joe Posnanski he'd remember seeing for the rest of his life when he took BP at the K. Or somesuch. The toolsy Lubanski (5th overall pick in the 2003 draft) was rated the "best athlete" in the system by BA that year. A major drafting miss by the Royals, most had given up on Lubanski well before he left the system. Lubanski never appeared in a Major League game with the Royals, and is now in the Blue Jay system.

#5 - Justin Huber (C): Yea, do I even have to do this one? Huber was acquired by Baird from the Mets in exchange for Jose Bautista at the 2004 deadline. This was another deal that was pretty well liked. Somewhere, it all went downhill, and fast. Huber was seen as positionless (and look, these guys know how to field a good D) and fell out of favor seemingly instantly. Huber got 175 PAs with the Royals over three years and is now planning to play 2010 in Japan. I wish him well. He's my favorite player.

#6 - Luis Cota (P): Cota, a converted shortstop out of Arizona, was a tenth round pick in the 2003 draft. Darren touched on Cota a little in this post about that Draft. Cota is still around, and spent last season in Burlington (the Iowa one, as if it matters). At this rate, he'll make his debut with a Major League team in 2020.

#7 - Shane Costa (OF): Maybe you've noticed a trend. Costa was a second round pick in the 2003 draft. The Royals seemed as if they were in a hurry to get Costa to the Majors. And then, they kinda moved on. Between 2005 and 2007, the Royals gave Costa 449 PAs as an outfielder. Costa only hit .254/.289/.366 during those years, and did not make the team out of Spring Training in 2009. He probably would have been called up last season, only he was unfortunately injured. The Royals did bring him back for 2010.

#8 - Mitch Maier (OF): Bizarrely made a minor cause celebre thanks to Dayton's weird old outfielder fetish, Maier was another new guy. The Royals took Maier with the 30th overall pick in the 2003 draft. A college hitter, the plan was to have Maier be a decent contributor to the Royals sooner rather than later, and to some extent, under a different administration, that could have happened.

#9 - Donald Murphy (2B): A 5th round pick in the 2002 Draft, Murphy got the bulk of his playing time with the 2005 Royals. Between 2004 and 2005 Murphy hit .191/.265/.347 in 364 PAs. The A's picked him up in 2006 and he got decent playing time in 2007-8, when he was probably actually ready for it. Spent 2009 in the Baltimore system, and has mashed as a AAA hitter for awhile now.

#10 - J.P. Howell (P): Howell was the 31st overall pick in the 2004 Draft out of Texas. Howell struggled as a Royal in 2005, and was traded to Tampa Bay for Joey Gathright in Dayton's first move as GM in 2006. We've talked about this trade a time or two. Long story short: Howell has done more for Tampa than Gathright did for the Royals.

The point here isn't an easy agnosticism about minor league rankings and it isn't to jeer at Baseball America. Mainly, this list gives us a decent snapshot of a now long-gone era and, I believe, a little bit of perspective. Mostly, it's just interesting to look back.

However, and perhaps I've made this point a few times too many, but we need to move past the notion that Dayton Moore inherited so little that he needs six years just to have a good team at AA. Because really, that wasn't the case in 2006. The system was poor and the Royals were bad. Allard deserved to be fired. But Dayton didn't take over the worst organization at any point in the history of baseball whatever.

In a limited way, you can actually see how the system of this era was actually close to working out. At least according to the limited plan in place. The Royals had graduated Greinke, and had an elite hitter in place in Butler. To supplement those two All-Star level talents, the Royals had a number of low-risk/low-upside/not-terrible college draftees who might reasonably provide adequate if unspectacular talent in a few years. It wasn't a bad starting point for a system. Only, the Royals seemed to take the "college guys will be ready sooner" concept too far and appeared to sour on a number of these players when they struggled in 2005 or 2006.

Between bad luck, bad development and in some cases just bad thinking, the Royals didn't produce a single OF/DH out of the Costa/Maier/Lubanski/Huber mix. Not one. At least not in their minds.

Nevertheless, like a chubby Venus emerging out of a sea of bad picks, there was Billy Butler.

Royals about to Become Everyone's Favorite Opponent in MLB 2K10

I hope the winner gives Yuniesky his cut.

Peterson, who retired after a 20-year tenure as the top executive for the Kansas City Chiefs, now serves as chairman of USA Football - the national governing body for the sport. The 65-year-old California native will share many of his memories and experiences as guest speaker of the 56th annual Touchdown Club of Annapolis football awards banquet on Thursday night.

Annapolis banquet lands special guest as speaker • Sports (www.HometownAnnapolis.com - The Capital)

But it’s significant that the Chiefs did rout the Vikings in the fourth Super Bowl 40 years ago.

It proved the Jets’ victory over the Colts wasn’t a fluke.

It proved the AFL was ready for the merger right then and there.

Super Chiefs of 40 years ago underrated | PressDemocrat.com

From a personal standpoint, I couldn't be happier to write this sentence:

Kansas City Chiefs G Brian Waters has won the Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year award.

Wow.

KMBC 9 is the first to report the development citing a source close to the NFL.

I spent Friday morning in a Fort Lauderdale ballroom announcing Waters, Mike Furrey and London Fletcher as finalists for the award.

Clark Hunt, Denny Thum and other Chiefs officials were in attendance and, from the looks on their faces, they were proud to have Waters representing them.

This puts the Chiefs all by themselves with five Man of the Year winners, an NFL record.

Waters joins this elite crew of Chiefs to win the award: Len Dawson, Willie Lanier, Will Shields and Derrick Thomas.

Here's a photo of the statue:

(H/T WTexKC for getting the first FanShot up)

Former Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast has a new job.

With the Raiders.

Per Adam Schefter of ESPN, Pendergast has accepted a role as the Raiders' defensive backs coach.

Pendergast was the Chiefs coordinator in 2009, a club that didn't improve statistically from 2008. It was fairly clear that the relationship with the Chiefs wasn't long-term because Todd Haley had tried to hire Romeo Crennel in March of 2009 and then eventually did hire him last month.

Pendergast was let go following Crennel's hire. It was described as a "mutual decision" between he and Haley.

(H/T Jason Shore)

Before jumping to larger concerns, let us get the basics of the Scott Podsednik signing out of the way. You guys have been all over this signing for two days, and there's not much for me to add, so I'll simply summarize.

• He'll be 34 next season and he's not very good. If he repeats last season, which is the best case scenario, when he hit .304/.353/.412, he'll be marginally non-terrible. Of course, the previous five years he hit a combined .260/.326/.356. But that was only when he was younger and in his athletic peak, so those 2288 plate appearances probably don't tell us much. As Simmons would say, when you have a chance to sign a guy who has two career years with a team, and that team still doesn't want him back, you have to do it.
  
• Not to be a jerk, but your weird uncle (or your GM, as it were) or someone is going to think he's great defensively, but there's solid evidence that he's pretty overrated afield. I think the best way to think about it, allowing for the usual defensive vagueness, is that he's not going to kill you defensively, but he's also not going to actually make you good either.
  
• Since we're talking about a Dayton Moore signing, we can say that the contract could have been worse: $1.75 million for one year, with a scary option for 2012. We're still just lighting money on fire here, but only about $1.2 million.

All in all, typical Dayton: older, more expensive, worse. We've seen this movie before.

But what utterly saddens me is this: why does it have to be this way? Why does Dayton make so many moves that look like they were dreamed up by a talk radio caller or (gasp) a blogger who isn't even trying hard? We've supposedly got a great scouting mind running this team... and the solution he comes up with is Scott Podsednik?

Are we sure we didn't hire Murray Chass or some other good "baseball man" who checked out of actually paying attention or following the game in detail decades ago?

At first I thought Dayton Moore was just a bad GM, now I'm worried if he's even trying.

Because when it comes to stopgap options who aren't very good, you don't have to pick a formerly famous person who was born in the 1970s. There aren't rules about these things.

Dayton Moore has J.J. Picollo on staff. He's supposed to be another great scouting mind. Dayton Moore has Mike Arbuckle on staff, he's also supposedly a great scout. Supposedly, we've got everything in place to build the kind of low-cost roster that can win here. Supposedly, nobody knows more about 15-19 year old baseball players than these guys. Supposedly, they can spot tools from space. Supposedly, they were all great great hires.

And we're left holding the Podsednik.

Centerfield is the centerfold for the tools hounds, but nobody had a better idea than Scotty Pods? Nobody knew of Player X, who was 23 and a minor league free agent? Nobody knew of Player Y, who could be snagged in the Rule 5? Nobody suggested Player Z, who could be had for whatever pitching prospect we had who smoked weed last summer?

I'm not going to jump up and down over Scotty Pods. Lame signing, but he's just a guy. He'll say all the right things and score from first once or twice and we'll all love it. Whatever.

No, what really upsets me is that we have another opportunity to learn that our front office continues to be built more on "supposedlys" than a track record of success.